International Workshop on Theoretical and Empirical Approaches
for Understanding Adaptation to Climate Change

Aim and Scope

January 21-22, 2012
Room 2-510, Bldg.No.2
Sophia University,
Tokyo, Japan
Introduction to research projects on impact and adaptation analysis conducted in Japan

Kiyoshi Takahashi
Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research National Institute for Environmental Studies

In Japan, alike in other countries, attention to adaptation to climate change impacts has been increasing for these severaly years quite rapidly. In response to the increasing attention, several major relevant research projects were launched in the fiscal year 2010 based on fundings from Ministry of Environment and Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. In one of the projects, our research team in National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) is in charge of integration of sector knowledge and has developed and improved an integration tool for the policy discussion of mitigation as well as adaptation (AIM/Impact [Policy]). At the seminar, the concept of the tool and results of the analysis will be explained. Other ongoing scientific activities related to climate risk assessment in Japan will be also introduced.

Climate vulnerability of mitigation measures Linking mitigation and adaptation strategies?

Alexandros Gasparatos
Biodiversity Institute, Department of Zoology, Oxford University

Different climate mitigation strategies have been proposed in order to control the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Mitigation measures such as the development of renewable energy sources (e.g. wind power, tidal energy, biofuels) and carbon sequestration through forestry have gained wide acceptance and are being adopted in several countries across the world. However such mitigation measures can be vulnerable to adverse climatic effects which can reduce their long-term potential to mitigate climate change. Potential climate vulnerabilities of mitigation measures are rarely taken into consideration when designing and implementing such strategies. From this starting point this presentation will present evidence from the academic literature on which types of climate mitigation measures might be the most vulnerable to adverse climatic effects. It will proceed to discuss the policy implications that arise and make the case that in some cases it might make sense to link climate and adaptation strategies in order to ensure that the mitigation potential of vulnerable measures will not be compromised. The presentation will conclude by identifying key research areas at the interface of climate mitigation and adaptation.

Financing Adaptation: Challenges in Allocating Funds to the Vulnerable

Izumi Kubota
Senior Researcher, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies

Streamlining and scaling-up of financial support is one of key areas that need to be focused on to enhance measures for adaptation in the post-2012 framework. One of the achievements of the UNFCCC negotiations in Cancun was the decision to establish a Green Climate Fund. With the adoption of the agreement on the fund, the question of how to develop a transparent way of prioritizing countries for the allocation has once again raised. We analyzed how the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) and the Adaptation Fund under the Kyoto Protocol select the target countries/projects to have some implications for future adaptation finance mechanisms concerning the way of prioritizing them.
Mitigation and Adaptation Aid under Climate Security: In Light of the Vulnerable in Developing Countries

Yosuke Arino
Graduate School of Economics, Keio University

Under the current international treaty for climate change, developed countries are responsible for adaptation of the vulnerable such as those living in the Least Developed Countries. This paper attempts to analyze the effect of adaptation aid from a developed country (the North) to a developing country (the South), whether it accelerates the level of the South’s mitigation or not. It is assumed that the South has two population groups, i.e., the vulnerable and the non-vulnerable, and that only the former receives adaptation aid, which is distributed either to adapt on site or to build adaptive capacity to shift to the non-vulnerable. Increasing distribution ratio of raising adaptive capacity causes the South to mitigate or not, corresponding to the magnitude of a marginal abatement cost over a marginal damage. If the former is relatively lower (higher) than the latter, then the South increases (decreases) the level of mitigation. In anticipation of the South’s mitigation action, the North promotes (lowers) the level of adaptation aid. The welfare of the North always increases as long as the South mitigates in response to increasing distribution ratio, while the south’s welfare is determined by the sum of the level of the North’s mitigation, adaptation aid and the difference of the vulnerable’s welfare and the non-vulnerable’s one. The outcome differs from preceding studies in the sense that the South can mitigate even if adaptation and mitigation are either neutral or substitute with each other. Keywords: Mitigation, Adaptation, Adaptation aid, Vulnerability, Population, Climate security
Climate Change Adaptation in Japanese Local Governments and Supporting Measures for Dissemination – Facts, Issues and Future Prospects –

*Shinji Onoda, *Nobuo Shirai, *Mitsuru Tanaka and **Kumiko Kajii
*Hosei University
**Pacific Consultant Co., ltd.

Hosei University has conducted research on climate change impacts and dissemination of systematic implementation of adaptation policies in local governments, under the S-8 Project for Comprehensive Research on Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Policies, implemented by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. Concretely, following four points are actively worked on; (1) Supporting model studies that analyze climate change impacts and investigate adaptation policies in specific areas of Japan; (2) establishing a guideline with a generalized procedure to consider adaptation policies in local communities based on the results of item (1); (3) Operationalizing an information platform in order to share necessary data, tools and examples including the result of item (1) and (2) to consider adaptation policies; (4) Operationalizing an information exchange forum among persons related, called “Japan Local Forum for Climate Change Adaptation Society (Forum CCAS: http://www.adapt-forum.jp/)”, through the information platform and meetings. In this workshop, the outcome of factual investigation on prefectural or municipal ordinances, plans and measures regard with climate change in Japanese prefectures and government-designated municipalities, and recent study on guidelines and model studies for adaptation by utilizing the outcome of simulation of climate change prediction will be presented. In the research project, adaptation policies are reestablished from the viewpoint of vulnerability improvements. Study results on vulnerability assessment methods, vulnerability structuring and systematic adaptation planning will also be proposed.
Perception Gaps between the Experts and the General Public on Climate Change Adaptation in Case of Disaster Risk Reduction Policy

*Kenshi Baba, **Eiko Suda, **Yasuaki Hijioka, **Hiromi Kubota and ***Mitsuru Tanaka
*Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry
**National Institute for Environmental Studies
**Hosei University

To prepare for emerging impacts of climate change, the central government, such as MOE (Ministry of Environment) and MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism), and some pioneering local governments have begun to examine adaptation policies eventually in Japan. Local governments are expected to play a significant role especially in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation (DRR-CCA) to make cities resilient. Although climate data and models on impacts of climate change are required to be downscaled to develop local adaptation policy, the scientific results are unavoidable to contain uncertainty. But in fact, as DRR-CCA is one of the urgent issues, local governments will have to develop adaptation policy based on the uncertain risk information. It is therefore important to clarify potential perception gaps among stakeholders on the uncertain risk information for DRR-CCA policymaking. To gain enough acceptance of such a policy and to encourage the participation of a broad range of actors, this study clarifies the perception gaps including interpretations, attitudes and interests on DRR-CCA among stakeholders. Firstly, we conducted semi-structured interviews to 11 experts and elicited their interpretations on climate change impact on urban infrastructure, disaster risk, vulnerability and drivers and barriers of policy implementation. We will draw up an influence diagram with the results and additional literature survey to summarize the perspective of expert knowledge on the issues. Secondly, we conducted a nationwide questionnaire survey on the Internet to the general public. We focused on their risk perception on climate change, trust to the local governments, intension to take adaptive behavior and acceptance of adaptation policy. According to the above mentioned survey results, we will analysis the potential gaps between experts and the general public, and derive some implications for DRR-CCA policymaking for local governments.
Can the Traditions of Artisinal fisherwomen withstand the Challenges of Climate Change

Anne McDonald,
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Sophia University

Small island coastal communities are among the most vulnerable to the adversities of increased climate change. Their ability to adapt and increase resilience will be the key to their survival. Hegura Island is one such coastal island community. Located on the Japan Sea, it is home to the female ama divers, one of the oldest artisanal fishing traditions of Japan. The island is located at the intersection of two opposing warm and cold ocean currents; thus contributing to the climatic and marine biodiversity of the area. Plants from both southern and northern regions coexist on this island, creating a unique vegetation landscapes not observed on the mainland 50 kilometers away. Recorded ocean temperatures around Hegura Island between 1909 and 2009 rose by 1.2°C; the global average for the same time period being 0.5°C. Along with warming temperatures, degradation of sea grass beds, increasing rates of ocean desertification, declines in marine life and the increased frequency of southern marine life into their waters have been observed in recent years. This paper will examine how resource use and management traditions of the female ama divers have been transmitted and maintained today. One question to be explored is the resilience of their traditional knowledge and its applicability to help them adapt to a changing marine environment. Interviews with female ama divers focusing on their observations of environmental changes will be examined along with the scientific data collected from the Hegura and Nanatsushima Island Natural Science Research Report results from studies published in 1961 and 50 years later in 2010. How the female ama divers have managed to maintain their customs and distinct sense of cultural identity amidst the waves of westernization, modernization and technological advancement that have swept through mainstream Japan may be key when considering adaptive capacity potentials not only for the female ama divers of Hegura Island, but other marine based communities living with climate change.
Degradation of Coral Reefs And Environmentally and Economically Optimal Coral Transplantation using Fragments and Seedlings

*Nami Okubo and **Ayumi Onuma
*Research and Education Center for Natural Sciences, Keio University, Hiyoshi 4-1-1, Kohoku, Yokohama 223-8521, Japan
*Faculty of Economics, Keio University, Mita 2-15-45, Minato, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan

Despite their huge contributions to human welfare through the ecosystem services, coral reefs are seriously being deteriorated worldwide, due to climate change, costal developments, unsustainable fishery and the increase of Sea Star Acanthaster planci, which predates corals. As a way towards restoring coral reefs, which is an adaptation activity to restore and recover the natural ecosystems in the context of climate change, transplantation of corals is introduced. Although this activity is not considered as a measure to dramatically recover the deterioration, it is expected to contribute to slowing down the rate of loss of corals. In particular, the transplantation in Japan is taking place partly as an activity in some diving tours, in which coral fragments are transplanted onto deteriorated coral reefs. However, the fragments used for transplantation are taken from natural coral colonies, causing potential problems. These include decreasing the fecundity of the donor colonies; having a negative effect on the surrounding environment of the exploited corals; and contributing to low species and genetic diversity of transplanted fragments. In this paper, we suggest that seedlings should be used for transplantation as well as fragments. Seedlings are costly but have a lower negative environmental effect with a high genetic diversity. In this paper, we assume that the coral reefs contribute to fishery. We show that the optimal ratio of fragments and seedlings for transplantation is determined to maximize the profit of fishery, depending on the cost and the environmental effect of each coral transplant.
Economic Evaluation on Multiple-Benefits of Mangrove Forests in Vietnam - Conjoint Analysis on Attributes of Climate Change Adaptation, Biodiversity Conservation, and Disaster Prevention

WATANABE, Mikihiko*, VO, Thi Minh Hoang,** and Jazid***

* Professor, Nagoya University Global Environmental Leaders Program, Graduate School of Environmental Studies,
** Postgraduate Student, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam *** Short-Term Postgraduate Student, Graduate School of Environmental Studies,

This paper aims to evaluate multiple-benefits of mangrove forests in Vietnam by economic terms. Conjoint analysis is adopted as a method for economic evaluation. Can Gio Mangrove Forests adjacent to Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) are selected as a case, partly because Vietnam is extremely vulnerable to climate change and partly because the forests are important for conservation of coastal biodiversity and for mitigating tsunami attacks. Conjoint analysis is able to estimate importance on attributes of target (i.e. mangrove forests) and is to evaluate willingness-to-pays (WTPs) by respondents for the attributes. With regard to the case, climate change adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and disaster prevention are selected as attributes to be evaluated. More concretely, plantation in Tam Thon Hiep commune in the forests for climate change adaptation, subsidies for captive breeding of crocodiles for biodiversity conservation, and planting a mangrove species, Rhizophora apiculata, that is resistant to tsunami along the coast for tsunami prevention are chosen as the attributes. Through econometric analysis on 968 data from university postgraduate students and 392 data from the tourists in Can Gio respectively, coefficients and WTPs for all the attributes are obtained. WTPs by the students are: US$3.5 for climate change adaptation; US$1.8 for biodiversity conservation; and US$3.9 for disaster prevention. WTPs by the tourists are: US$15.3 for climate change adaptation; US$7.5 for biodiversity conservation; and US$15.8 for disaster prevention. As conclusions, first of all, conserving Can Gio for tsunami protection is the most important for people around HCMC, even if they themselves have not suffered from tsunami yet. Secondly, adaptation enjoys high appreciation by the people. The people are revealed to be aware of the serious conditions of the area. Thirdly, biodiversity conservation does not enjoy a high WTP by the people, possibly due to selection of crocodiles for this attribute.
Estimating of impacts on agriculture and forestry using a world economic model for climate change

Toyoaki Washida
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Sophia University

This paper shows how climate change and its adaptation activities in agricultural and forestry fields impact on the global economies with international trades. Some simulations are performed using an international applied general equilibrium model, which includes 16 areas and each area is disintegrated into 16 industries. The estimation of the direct impact on agricultural and forestry industries is done using a numerical summary in IPCC fourth report. This simulation can estimate and analyze both direct impacts on each region and indirect impacts that are prevailed by international trades. We can see that the international trades are also a type of adaptation. The major features of the model are as follows. First, the model uses the GTAP7 as international economic data. It ensures the balance and the consistency of many series of data. On the other hand, it makes difficult to adjust some data partly or to add some new series of data. Second, although the scale of the model is huge (including 20,000 equations), basic structures are simplified for understanding the relationship of causes and effects.
Effects of climate change on agriculture including adaptation: A Ricardian valuation study of Japan

Strömberg, Per
Swedish Environmental Protection Agency

Climate change effects on agriculture in general show very strong variability across different regions, crops and cropping systems. Japan is situated in a region that is foreseen to face strong changes in temperature and rainfall over the coming century. Japan is also emblematic for its dependence on rice, which is also a daily staple for billions of people worldwide. In spite of this the economic vulnerability and adaptation to different land-crop-crop system combinations has not received much attention in the literature on climate change in Japan. Using secondary data for the whole of Japan this paper uses the Ricardian econometric approach to assess the economic impact on farmer rents from future climate change. The economic effects of adaptation measures is also addressed. It is found that increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall will in several ways have a negative impact on rice farmer profits. This in turn may have broad implications not only for the Japanese local economy but also at the national level and beyond, and may put special stress on Japan’s policy of self reliance on production of this important staple.
Climate Adaptation Strategy in Water Sector

Guangwei Huang
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Sophia University

Flooding and water scarcity are expected to become ever-increasing problems in the future due to climate change. Asia is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to the concentration of large population and properties in flood-prone areas. In Japan, there is an increasingly widespread belief that intensive rainfalls have been steadily increasing because of climate change. In China, available evidence indicates that the situation of water scarcity would tend to deteriorate further in northern part such as Ningxia Autonomous region and the Gansu province due to climate change. Therefore, future water users must adapt to both more frequent flooding and more severe droughts. Besides, a new dimension is the change of water quality induced by climate change. This study discusses climate adaptation strategies through case studies in Japan and China. It is aimed at establishing a new integrated framework for coping with climate change.
Economic consequences of an increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan

Miguel Esteban
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waseda University

One of the fears of global warming is that it might produce an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones due to the warming of sea temperature. Several countries in the Asia-Pacific Region (such as the Philippines, Taiwan or Japan) regularly experience severe physical damage and other, indirect economic consequences of these weather systems. High waves, storm surges, heavy rain and high winds can cause great damage to infrastructure, housing and agricultural production. Also, the local population should take preventive action when these weather systems approach, and during their passage must take shelter in order to prevent the loss of life. These actions, though necessary, have effects on the economic development of a country, as this downtime will result in lower economic production. The presentation will quantify the likely levels of economic damage and also assess the potential for destruction in the year 2085. Particular attention will be placed on the case of Japan, and how tropical cyclones will affect port downtime, the requirements for higher sea defenses to take into account an increased risk of storm surges in Tokyo Bay, and the effects of downtime on the Japanese GDP. These economic effects will then be compared to the mitigation costs of producing electricity using a variety of renewable energy scenarios, which will highlight how mitigation could be far more cost effective than attempting to adapt against an increase in tropical cyclone intensity.